Koki Matsuda vs Kousuke Ogura Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent second serve performance, Matsuda has won 42.17% of points, slightly trailing Ogura's 42.6%. Does this small margin indicate a significant edge? Not necessarily, as both are very similar in this aspect.
• Matsuda's return game is strong, winning 43.58% of opponent's second serve points, but Ogura excels with 45.25% in the same statistic.
• First serve return stats show Matsuda at 26.76%, whereas Ogura leads with 29%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ogura in breaking the initial serve.
• Under pressure, Matsuda saves 51.52% of breakpoints, compared to Ogura’s 49.07%, indicating Matsuda’s better resilience in tight situations.
• Analyzing match performance, Matsuda has a higher win rate of 70.91% over the last year, while Ogura has secured 46.55%.
• Matsuda performs best on indoor hard courts with an 80% win rate, while Ogura finds success on hard courts at 50%.
• Both players often compete in Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K events, but Matsuda’s superior win percentage demonstrates higher consistency.
• The opponent quality stats show Matsuda facing rivals with an average rank of 360.47, in contrast to Ogura's average of 349, suggesting slightly tougher competition for Ogura.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Matsuda has a notable advantage, winning 62% compared to Ogura’s 32%.
• Recently, Ogura's breakpoint conversion is 41.03%, ahead of Matsuda’s 31.97%, giving Ogura a potential edge in critical moments.

Editorial Prediction (August 15, 2025, UTC):

Matsuda and Ogura present a tightly matched contest, with minor differences in key statistical areas. Both players show similar recent forms in second serve performance, but Ogura holds a slight advantage in the return game.

Matsuda demonstrates resilience under pressure by saving a higher percentage of breakpoints. This, combined with her superior win rate over the past year, highlights her as a formidable opponent.

Surface preferences favor Matsuda on indoor hard courts with a significantly better record. However, Ogura’s better performance in converting breakpoints could be pivotal in close sets.

Overall, considering the statistical trends and strengths, Matsuda’s ability to play under pressure and favorable match conditions makes her the likely winner for this upcoming tennis match.